Cyanobacteria capable of producing dangerous microcystin toxins flourish in the Tennessee State University wetland, Nashville, Tennessee. The objective of this research was to measure and evaluate trends and correlation in microcystin and water chemistry in the wetland. Multiple samples were collected from the wetland between June 2017 through January 2020 and analyzed for nitrogen, phosphorous, iron, sulfur, turbidity, and microcystin. Microcystin concentrations ranged from less than 0.15 to 25.1 µg/L. Conditional correlations were estimated with a multivariate linear probability model in Stata software using the environmental variables and microcystin concentrations to determine which variables best predicted elevated microcystin levels that exceed the health advisory standard of 0.3 µg/L set by the Environmental Protection Agency, which occurs in 0.18 of the sample. The environmental variables that predicted exceeding this microcystin threshold were: turbidity, with an increase in probability of 0.002 for each NTU increase in turbidity (significant at 1%); total phosphate, with an increase in probability of 0.045 for each additional milligram per liter of phosphate (significant at 1%); and the nitrate-to-phosphate ratio, with a decrease in probability of 0.0087 for each increase of 1 in the ratio (significant at 10%).